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  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Ignore Stocks to Hold Steady on The Week August 17, 2018
    Posted To: MBS Commentary10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began. With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4 days this week. Tuesday was only 2bps higher and gave way to an overnight rally that restored the range anyway! Long story short, for all […]
  • Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Unchanged This Week August 17, 2018
    Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged today. That leaves them right in line with last Friday's levels. I devoted a considerable number of words in yesterday's article to explaining why most other articles about mortgage rates were inaccurate yesterday. Suffice it to say that the absence of change compared to last […]
  • Fannie Mae Research: Housing, What a Drag? August 17, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae's monthly Economic Development papers always have the best headlines, pithy and to the point. The August one reads. "Growth Picks Up as Expected, No Thanks to Housing." Sort of says it all. The company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Team is upgrading its estimate of third quarter growth based on […]
  • MBS Day Ahead: Checking In With Bigger Picture (Treasury vs MBS) August 17, 2018
    Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt may end up being a slow, summertime Friday with the news cycle calming down relative to earlier in the week, not to mention the fact that its peak vacation season (traders take vacations too, ya know!). That gives us a moment to step back and reflect on some bigger picture trends […]
  • Second Quarter Loan Performance Shows Steady Improvement August 17, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWireLoan performance continued to improve in the second quarter. The overall delinquency rate on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of that period, a 27-basis point (bp) decline from the first quarter of this year. The National Delinquency Survey […]
  • Flagstar/Fed News; FHA, VA, Ginnie Program Updates; New Lender Products August 17, 2018
    Posted To: Pipeline PressCapital markets folks know that there are billions of dollars of outstanding 5, 6, 7, and even 8% securities filled with high interest-rate loans. LOs know that they aren’t paying off/refinancing. One possible reason? Despite the headlines talking about housing appreciation outpacing wages, about 10% of all U.S. homes with a mortgage […]
  • MBS RECAP: Bonds End Unchanged After Mid-Day Scare August 16, 2018
    Posted To: MBS CommentaryTreasuries were weaker at the start of the overnight session as renewed US/China trade negotiations propelled global equities markets higher. The hallmark of yesterday's overnight session was a sharp drop in Chinese stock futures which spilled over to US markets throughout the day. In other words, today was a reversal of yesterday. […]
  • Mortgage Rate Misinformation Run Amok! August 16, 2018
    Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchBe careful what you read--or perhaps, who you trust--about mortgage rates today. There's a lot of misinformation out there. Don't be mad. No one is out to get you. No one is out to intentionally deceive you (at least not when it comes to today's mortgage rate news. Rather, the misinformation […]
  • Purchase Origination Share Remains at Survey High August 16, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWirePurchase loans held on to the June share of 71 percent of closed loans in July which remains the highest share in the seven-year history of Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report . Refinances also held steady, remaining at 29 percent although the percentage of refinancing through the VA gained 2 percentage points […]
  • MBS Day Ahead: Turkey Causing Road Rage; Another Look at Moving Average Misdirection August 16, 2018
    Posted To: MBS CommentaryI found myself driving in the truck for more than an hour yesterday evening--long enough to hear the news cycle repeated several times. During that time, I was emphatically warned about this " new " and " surprising " issue of Turkey's financial crisis. Apparently this has the potential to send shockwaves […]
  • Construction Numbers Post Sluggish Recovery August 16, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWireAs analysts had predicted, both housing permits and starts recovered , albeit only slightly, in July after a poor showing the previous month. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development now report that housing permits are being issued at a pace higher than in 2017, but housing […]
  • Tech and Vendor Updates; White Paper on Reasons for Margin Compression August 16, 2018
    Posted To: Pipeline PressTrillions of dollars of securities are tied to LIBOR, but the London Interbank Offered Rate is scheduled to be phased out at the end of 2021. Companies servicing adjustable rate mortgages tied to LIBOR are concerned, understandably, about the transition to another index. So far, the front runner substitute seems to be […]
  • Economic Environment Depressing Millennal Homeownership August 16, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWireIt shouldn't be news to anyone that the homeownership rate of the Millennial generation continues to be anemic. While it has improved slightly since 2015, the Urban Institute's (UI's) new research shows that, at that point it was 37 percent, 8 percentage points lower than the homeownership rate of Gen Xers and […]
  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Dragged Into Snowball Rally by Stocks (Not Turkey) August 15, 2018
    Posted To: MBS CommentaryHeadlines continue overstating the connection between US market movements and the financial drama in Turkey. Today was especially damaging to the case for correlation as Turkish Lira improved significantly even as US stocks and bond yields sank. The conventional wisdom has been arguing for the OPPOSITE relationship lately (i.e. weaker Lira pushes […]
  • Mortgage Rates Barely Lower Despite Bond Market Cues August 15, 2018
    Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates fell only modestly today despite a much stronger move in broader bond markets. I spend a lot of time espousing the fact that rates are based on bonds, so it's fair to wonder how days like today happen. Indeed, interest rates are based on bonds, but there are a […]
  • Builder Confidence Retreats Once Again August 15, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWireRising concerns about costs and labor shortages continue to take a toll on home builder sentiment according to the August Housing Market Index (HMI). The Index, a joint product of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, dipped another point to 67. The HMI has been moving in a […]
  • MBS Day Ahead: Foreign Markets Helping Bonds (Not Turkey) August 15, 2018
    Posted To: MBS CommentaryFrom New York, traders have been looking east for at least some level of inspiration from Turkish market volatility. As we've discussed exhaustively, however, that's far from the only game in town. Today brings fresh evidence. In looking east this morning, traders passed right over Turkey and continued on to China, where […]
  • Fulfillment, Non-QM Products; Corporate Name Changes; What is a Mirror Security? August 15, 2018
    Posted To: Pipeline PressBond prices and mortgage rates, like nearly every commodity, are driven by supply and demand. I mention this because early last week prices of US government bonds declined while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased (although it reversed itself due to turmoil in Turkey). Investors bought $34 billion of […]
  • Mortgage Applications: Purchase Volume Declines, Refis Stabilize August 15, 2018
    Posted To: MND NewsWireIt was another week of decline for mortgage applications as those for home purchase slid for the fifth week in a row. The overall volume of applications, as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Market Composite Index, declined by 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended August […]
  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Fight Off Sharper Retreat Ahead of Data August 14, 2018
    Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market movers were concerned though! On several occasions throughout the day, US bond markets could be seen moving in the opposite direction to that implied by Turkish Lira, […]

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